2020 Rogue Salmon Season Wrap Up
2020 was a mediocre year for salmon on the Rogue. In a decent year we average a Chinook per rod. Some days limits, some days no fish make it to the net and most days somewhere in between. The average for the Rogue July – October was much less this season despite the Facebook implications to the contrary. We fisherman always like to show off our best days! All the salmon runs were really late this year with very few fish in July.
As many of you know, I am a scientist by training and a fisherman by passion, so, it’s time to geek out on the numbers behind the results and, stay with me here, there are some very interesting insights. Bottom line is that Chinook and hatchery Coho are hurting and our steelhead, especially hatchery steelhead are doing quite well.
ODFW nets salmon at Huntley Park every 2-3 days July – October which is supposed to give us a year over year comparison of salmon run size (https://myodfw.com/huntley-park-fish-counts). Please note that this is a very small sampling of the run. The actual run is far larger.
As of Oct 15, Chinook counts (adults + jacks) were about 78% of the 10-year average and about average for Coho. HOWEVER…that’s not the whole story. Bottom line – what you feel in the boat is supported by the numbers.
1. Chinook Runs are Far Worse Than They Seem – The 10-year average for Chinook includes some very, very bad years. This year, the 10-year average was 614. By comparison, as recently as 2012, the 10-year average was over 1,000. Compared to the 2012 10 yr. average, the 2020 Chinook run was at about 50% of recent historical averages. But, if, like me, you want to catch ADULT Chinook, the story gets much worse.
2. Chinook Jack Count is Abnormally High – Starting in 2018, the percentage of jacks to adults jumped and stayed there. For example, in 2012 jacks made up just 19 percent of the total run compared to 2020 where jacks made up 45% of the total run. Folk lore and some predictive models correlate a strong jack run with a strong adult run the following year. Clearly, this has not been the case on the Rogue for the past few years.
3. The Wild Coho run is good, but the hatchery is failing spectacularly – For 2020, there were TWO hatchery adult Coho netted out of 101 total Coho. Total Coho are slightly above average.
4. Half Pounder Steelhead are strong with a good percentage of hatchery fish – Steelhead are the rising stars on the Rogue. Over the past 10 years, the half pounder run has been getting stronger with almost 2/3 of this year’s half pounders hatchery fish. We’ve been catching lots of winter steelhead on the Rogue with a good percentage of hatchery fish and the numbers support that.
Speaking of winter steelhead, it looks like we will have another good year on the lower Rogue. We are now booking winter Steelhead mid Dec – March.
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