I attended the PFMC meeting on Mar 8th in Sacramento and was deeply disappointed that after the lowest return of fall salmon ever recorded that PFMC was even considering opening a commercial season targeting these fish this year based on a fantasy that their so-called scientists brewed up based upon a model that uses jack returns to predict the 2010 run. With a straight face, their lead "scientist" said the following: "2009 Sacramento Fall Chinook return was 39,800. We predicted a return of 122,100. Our prediction for 2010 is an abundance of 245,483 salmon" WHAT?!? I'm sorry, but that is just pitiful.

Unfortunately, PFMC is using this fantasy number as the basis of their decision to open a commercial season off of the California coast. A final decision will be made at the April meeting in Portland. Angler input really does matter in what this group decides. Sadly, we need only wait 1 year to see the results of massive trucking and net pen acclamation of 2008 smolt. If we don't trash this year's run, we could have some very good salmon fishing next year and in the years beyond.

I sent a highly detailed analysis to PFMC on Tuesday that was probably a bit of overkill, but if you want to read all the gory detail you can click here to see how I came to my conclusions.

If you care about ever catching big kings from the Sacramento in the future, please read the following and if you agree with it, copy and email it to the PFMC at pfmc.comments@noaa.gov by Mar 16. Please use "Comment for Inclusion in the Briefing Book for the Apr 2010 Council Meeting - Salmon Management" as the title of your email and don't forget to included your name and address:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am deeply concerned about opening any harvest, especially commercial, that would target the 2010 Fall Run Sacramento Chinooks because I believe the forecast of 245,483 salmon is grossly inflated and that we will be lucky to make minimum escapement. My reasons are as follows:

1. The predictive model that forms the basis for harvest decisions is too deeply flawed to be used when populations are at critically low levels. In 2009 the predictive model failed by more than 300%. Predicted salmon = 122,100 Actual salmon = 39,800. More simply, for every 3 salmon that the model predicted, less than 1 salmon actually materialized. If the model over-predicts to the same level this year, we will have only 82,000 salmon return - or 40,000 below minimum escapement goals.

2. Even if the model were correct, there is a problem with the 2009 jack count that feeds the model. The majority of the jacks were part of an anomalous, near historic return to the Feather River while the Upper Sacramento and American had very low returns of jacks. The Upper Sacramento that historically produced the lion's share of ocean harvested salmon received a very low jack return. Failure to protect depleted Upper Sacramento stocks will lead to disastrous results for future ocean harvests.

3. There is no historical precedent for a year over year increase in salmon abundance of 6 times as would be needed for the 245,483 salmon prediction to come true. The greatest year over year increase in Sacramento Fall Chinooks was 1994 - 1995 when the salmon abundance increased by a factor of 2.2 and even that is rare. Normal increases are measured in percentages, not factors of 2 or 3. Applying the optimistic 2.2 factor to the 2009 returns we can expect a maximum of 87,560 adult salmon in 2010 - a number far below minimum escapement.

In light of the above facts, I would urge the council to apply common sense, rather than numbers from a highly flawed prediction model in making harvest decisions for the 2010 Sacramento Fall Run Chinooks. Given the historically low returns of 2009, a flawed prediction model, anomalously high returns to the Feather Hatchery and lack of historical precedence, the only rational decision is to close the harvest of 2010 Sacramento Fall Run Chinooks. Any other decision will be both reckless and potentially disastrous to this once stellar fishery.